Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.7/33
Título: Genetic diversity in the SIR model of pathogen evolution
Autor: Gordo, I.
Gomes, M.G.M.
Reis, D.G.
Campos, P.R.A.
Palavras-chave: Evolution
Genetic Variation
Models, Biological
Influenza A virus/genetics
Data: 2009
Citação: Gordo I, Gomes MGM, Reis DG, Campos PRA (2009) Genetic Diversity in the SIR Model of Pathogen Evolution. PLoS ONE 4(3): e4876
Resumo: We introduce a model for assessing the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in pathogen populations, whose epidemiology follows a susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIR). We model the population of pathogens as a metapopulation composed of subpopulations (infected hosts), where pathogens replicate and mutate. Hosts transmit pathogens to uninfected hosts. We show that the level of pathogen variation is well predicted by analytical expressions, such that pathogen neutral molecular variation is bounded by the level of infection and increases with the duration of infection. We then introduce selection in the model and study the invasion probability of a new pathogenic strain whose fitness (R0(1+s)) is higher than the fitness of the resident strain (R0). We show that this invasion probability is given by the relative increment in R0 of the new pathogen (s). By analyzing the patterns of genetic diversity in this framework, we identify the molecular signatures during the replacement and compare these with those observed in sequences of influenza A.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.7/33
ISSN: 1932-6203
Versão do Editor: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004876
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