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Dynamics and control of measles in Portugal: Accessing the impact of anticipating the age for the first dose of MMR from 15 to 12 months of age

dc.contributor.authorPaulo, A. C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGomes, M. C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGomes, M. G. M.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-10-08T09:43:05Z
dc.date.available2009-10-08T09:43:05Z
dc.date.created2009-10-08T09:43:05Zen_US
dc.date.issued2008-05
dc.date.updated2009-10-08T09:43:07Z
dc.description.abstractThe all-time low incidence of measles in Portugal in the recent years, raises questions regarding whether the disease has been eliminated, the role of recent control measures, and the epidemiological consequences of the rise in the proportion of newborns to vaccinated mothers, as opposed to those born to mothers who acquired immunity by natural infection. We estimate the vaccination coverage against measles in Portugal. on a cohort-by-cohort basis, and incorporate this information into an age-structured seasonally-driven mathematical model aimed at reproducing measles dynamics in the past decades. The model reproduces documented trends in disease notifications and the serological profile of the Portuguese population, as estimated by a recent National Serological, Survey. We provide evidence that the effective reproduction number (R-e) of measles has been driven below 1 in Portugal, and that sustained measles elimination is crucially dependent upon the maintenance of a high (>95%) coverage with the MMR I vaccine in the future. If the vaccination coverage decreases to levels around 90% the anticipation of the first dose of the MMR I from 15 to 12 months of age, will. ensure that R-e remains below 1. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All. rights reserved
dc.identifier.citationPaulo, A.C.,Gomes, M.C.,Gomes, M.G.(2008). "Dynamics and control of measles in Portugal: Accessing the impact of anticipating the age for the first dose of MMR from 15 to 12 months of age". Vaccine. 26(19):2418-27
dc.identifier.issn0264-410X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.7/42
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.02.059
dc.subjectmeasles
dc.subjectPortugal
dc.subjectmathematical modeling
dc.subjectvaccination
dc.titleDynamics and control of measles in Portugal: Accessing the impact of anticipating the age for the first dose of MMR from 15 to 12 months of ageen_US
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess
rcaap.typearticle

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